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Kostin写道：“鸽派的美联储主动推动了2019年股市的反弹，我们预计低利率未来将继续支持高于平均水平的估值。”该团队表示，股票估值将继续上升并支撑明年的市场。他们将2020年的利润预估从每股181美元下调至177美元，指数目标价定在3400点，比标普500指数最近收盘点位约高出13%。

余金权美国Scripps研究所化学系Frank and Bertha Hupp教授Jin-Quan Yu was born and raised in a rather isolated mountain valley in Zhejiang Province （Southwest of Shanghai）。 He received his B.S。 in Chemistry at East China Normal University。 He then went to Guangzhou Institute of Chemistry， Chinese Academy of Sciences to study terpene chemistry and heterogeneous catalysis under the supervision of Professor Shu-De Xiao and obtained his Master’s degree in 1990。 He obtained his Ph.D degree in 1999 from Cambridge University under the supervision of Prof。 J。 B。 Spencer， where he studied biosynthesis and hydrogenation。 From 2001-2002， Jin-Quan worked on Pd-catalyzed allylic oxidation as a postdoctoral fellow at the Harvard University in the laboratories of Professor E。 J。 Corey。 He returned to Cambridge University in 2002 and was appointed as a University Royal Society Research Fellow in 2003 to start his independent research towards developing asymmetric C–H insertion reactions。 In 2004， he moved to Brandeis University as an Assistant Professor of Chemistry。 He joined The Scripps Research Institute as an Associate Professor in 2007 and was appointed as the Frank and Bertha Hupp Professor of Chemistry at The Scripps Research Institute in 2012。 He received the Mukaiyama Award in 2012， the Raymond and Beverly Sackler Prize in the Physical Sciences in 2013， the Elias J。 Corey Award in 2014， the MacArthur Fellowship in 2016， and the Pedler Award in 2017。

然而中国弹道导弹当真对美国构成如此威胁了吗？只要略加分析就可以发现，阿什利的结论显然是“避重就轻”。不同于以中近程常规导弹为主的中国弹道导弹家族，美国现役弹道导弹以洲际导弹为主，自然不可能频繁发射。但如果单算某个时期内洲际导弹的发射数量，美国绝对全球领先。特别是按照美国“导弹发射次数多”就说明“威胁大”的逻辑，美国海军到今年5月已连续172次成功试射“三叉戟”潜射洲际导弹，光是这个数字就超过大部分国家的洲际导弹总数。

“美联储暂停政策动作以观察情势发展确实说得通，因为在全球经济增长趋疲、金融条件收紧和财政刺激减弱之际，2019年经济放缓并非不可能发生。”美国经济增长料放缓，今年平均增长率预计为2.4%，低于1月的调查且为去年4月以来最低预估。路透近几个月的调查一再突显出，贸易战是美国经济的最显着下行风险。

Krueger认为这会对美国与其他地区的贸易谈判产生负面影响，因为“刚签协议（美墨加协议）几周就被人随心所欲地拿关税来威胁，这样的协议谁想签？”他补充说“无论周一是否实施关税，我们相信特朗普更广泛的贸易大战略已经受到了实质而持久的损害。”AGF Investments，Greg Valliere

（阿丹）来源：未来论坛微信公众号未来科学大奖，是中国第一个由科学家、企业家群体共同发起的民间科学奖项，关注原创性的基础科学研究，重在奖励在大中华区取得杰出科技成果的科学家（不限国籍、性别、年龄）。目前设置“生命科学”、“物质科学”和“数学与计算机科学”三大奖项，每个奖项获奖人数不超过5位，每一奖项由四位捐赠人共同捐赠。